During a conversation with the Legendary Georgia Ironman he mentioned the importance of a player leaving the “provisional” rating behind and obtaining a “regular” rating. The transference gives the player a little creditability; it is a first step on the path. Triple digit players have no creditability. None. Zip. Nada. I know because I was one who began trying to get to the path with a rating of eight hundred plus after losing all six games at my first USCF tournament. It does not matter who or what you are in the other world, if you only have three digits following your name, you are less than nothing in the world of chess. But add that extra digit onto your rating and the chess world notices you have, somehow, gotten a clue. It would be interesting to know what percentage of “newbies” make it out of triple digit purgatory. It would also be worthwhile to know what percentage of them make the transference from “P” to “R”.
“Mike Nolan would know,” I said to Tim. “You mean the USCF guy?” he questioned. Tim is not a forum reading kind of guy unless something is pointed out to him, so I told him I would post and pose the question.
Decades ago I worked at the Oxford bookstore when the first computers were brought into the store. We had to transfer everything on 3×5 cards to the computer. Once the information was inside the machine we found wonderful things we could do with it. Any question could be answered. For example, if one wanted to know the percentage, and or average number of chess books sold in the last day; week; month; year; or all-time, the question could be answered.
I love statistics. There were baseball stats coming out of my ears when a boy. I love sabermetrics, the study of baseball stats, and have read numerous books on the subject. A USCF board member should have statistics for everything. I would ask questions like, “How many games per year does (add any age) play? What is the average number of games for each age? What percentage of new members advance to quadruple digits? What percentage of new members who advance to quadruple digits do so as “provisional” as opposed to “regular.” How long does the average member belong to USCF? When it comes to questions, I am like Jimmy Durante, who was famous for saying, “I’ve gotta million of ’em.” The wonderful thing is that they can all be answered, if asked. The more information one has the better prepared he is to answer any question. Change begins with thought. We have Special relativity because Alburt Einstein asked himself a question.
Mike Nolan was the first to respond:
by nolan on Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:30 pm #282373
“What would you do with this information if you had it?”
Next to step into the ring was heavyweight, and newly reelected board member:
by Allen on Tue Jul 22, 2014 1:10 pm #282374
“I don’t see how that is a major priority of staff time. we know that most members only play in 1 event per year. We know that scholastic turnover in membership is very high as kids try it once or twice and never play again. I don’t see that as a particularly bad thing as you see the exact same pattern in other youth sports – baseball, soccer, basketball, etc.
My estimate would be far more than 50% – probably more like 75%.
But then again, many new adult members also do not reach a regular rating either. And then many adult members do not play in any events in a year – a large % have not played in any tournament in years.”
National Tournament Director
Delegate from Kentucky
If on the USCF board I would be able to deliver a Powerpoint program containing charts and graphs, in color mind you, not give an estimate. As far as “…not seeing how that is a major priority of staff time…,” I seem to recall Mike Nolan regularly posted statistics on the forum a few years ago. I will admit to not having been a regular reader since Bill Hall was replaced and cannot help but wonder if the woman who took his place is cracking the whip?
Next up is Gary L. Walters, another board member, writing as “Grayson.”
by Grayson on Tue Jul 22, 2014 1:16 pm #282375
“Please direct this request to the office along with a reason for the request.”
This post is an attempt to provide you “…with a reason for the request.” I posted this after the next post by “Crume.”
by nocab on Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:24 pm #282416
There were, and are no plans to do anything with the information. Inquiring minds just want to know…
The next man to step up to the plate was Bob Crume, or as I now think of him, “Rocky Mountain Bob,” my man!
by Crume on Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:40 pm #282379
Derived from the Golden Database and a peculiar skill in Excel formulas and pivot tables. Lots of assumptions in this data set (sub500 and sub1000 rating levels are arbitrary), so I would not assume any definitive judgments. Expiration and years are based on today, 7/22/14. Provisional rating based on Regular rating only; no consideration given to Quick or Blitz.
835,861 Member IDs in the August 2014 Golden Database (100%).
277,321 Member IDs who expired while Provisional (33% of total).
230,253 Member IDs who expired while Provisional and below 1000 rating (28% of total).
113,607 Member IDs who expired while Provisional and below 500 rating (14%).
74,432 Member IDs who expired while Provisional within the last 10 years and below 500 rating (9% of total).
33,605 Member IDs who expired while Provisional within the last 5 years and below 500 rating (4% of total).
I do not know who Rocky Mountain Bob is, or how he came to “interface” with the “Golden Database” but I thank you, sir. I was unaware of a “Golden Database.” Sounds like it should at least be locked up for safekeeping. It also sounds expensive; wonder if Rex had anything to do with it…Is there a “Platinum Database”? How about a “Silver” or “Bronze”? Does the “GD” hold the keys to the kingdom?! OK, I will stop, but you get my drift…There are always questions.